Winter Olympics: Game, Feb 18, 2026

Wed, Feb 18GameHistory onlyWinter Olympics

Updated

Markets

18 words · 10 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Captain Yes70%n=2 from settlement history–
NHL Yes68%n=5 from settlement history–
Glass Yes64%n=4 from settlement history–
Overtime Yes64%n=4 from settlement history–
Shootout Yes64%n=4 from settlement history–
Fight / Fighting Yes59%n=3 from settlement history–
First Time / First Timer Yes59%n=3 from settlement history–
Crowd / Crowded Yes51%n=2 from settlement history–
Comeback / Come back Yes51%n=4 from settlement history–
Short Side Yes50%n=4 from settlement history–
Shutout No78%n=4 from settlement history–
Heated Rivalry No–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Hat Trick No37%n=4 from settlement history–
Veteran No37%n=4 from settlement history–
Miracle on Ice No28%n=3 from settlement history–
Recruit / Recruited / Recruitment No28%n=3 from settlement history–
Turin No28%n=3 from settlement history–
What a Goal / What a Shot No24%n=4 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.

Transcript

History only. Sports broadcasts are tracked by their settled markets; there is no transcript for games.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWOMENTION-26FEB23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP