Winter Olympics: Game, Feb 18, 2026

Wed, Feb 18GameHistory onlyWinter Olympics

Updated

Markets

18 words · 6 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Shutout Yes78%n=3 from settlement history–
Captain Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
NHL Yes66%n=4 from settlement history–
Glass Yes61%n=3 from settlement history–
Overtime Yes61%n=3 from settlement history–
Comeback / Come back Yes46%n=3 from settlement history–
Shootout No78%n=3 from settlement history–
Fight / Fighting No73%n=2 from settlement history–
First Time / First Timer No73%n=2 from settlement history–
Crowd / Crowded No–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Short Side No61%n=3 from settlement history–
Heated Rivalry No–new new word, no probability yet–
Hat Trick No46%n=3 from settlement history–
Veteran No45%n=3 from settlement history–
Miracle on Ice No36%n=2 from settlement history–
Recruit / Recruited / Recruitment No36%n=2 from settlement history–
Turin No36%n=2 from settlement history–
What a Goal / What a Shot No30%n=3 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Transcript

History only. Sports broadcasts are tracked by their settled markets; there is no transcript for games.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWOMENTION-26FEB18C · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP