Winter Olympics: Game, Feb 18, 2026

Wed, Feb 18GameHistory onlyWinter Olympics

Updated

Markets

15 words · 7 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
2022 Yes76%n=3 from settlement history–
Train / Trained / Training Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
X Games Yes60%n=3 from settlement history–
2160 Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Slopestyle Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Tweak / Tweaks / Tweaked Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Powder Yes44%n=3 from settlement history–
Halfpipe No71%n=2 from settlement history–
Goggle No60%n=3 from settlement history–
2340 No–new new word, no probability yet–
Eileen Gu No–new new word, no probability yet–
Stomp / Stomps / Stomped No–new new word, no probability yet–
Injury / Injured No45%n=3 from settlement history–
Lindsey Vonn No44%n=3 from settlement history–
Red Bull No29%n=3 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Transcript

History only. Sports broadcasts are tracked by their settled markets; there is no transcript for games.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWOMENTION-26FEB18B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP