Congressional hearings, Jun 23, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the Senate hearing on the National Airspace System?
Markets
14 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 75%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Collision | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FAA | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Helicopter | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Modernize / Modernized / Modernization | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Newark | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NTSB / National Transportation Safety Board | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Runway | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Duffy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Privatization | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 50%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Autonomous | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUN23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP