Congressional hearings, Jun 9, 2026
Kalshi What will the witness say during the SPLC manufacturing hate hearing?
Markets
17 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| FBI / DOJ | Yes | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Antisemitism / Antisemitic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Conservative | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Extremist / Extremism | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Informant | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| KKK / Ku Klux Klan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | Yes | 56%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Free Speech / Freedom of Speech | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democracy | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Turning Point | No | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Credible Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Radicalize / Radicalization | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rare Books | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Woke / DEI | No | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Whistleblower | No | 34%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUN09 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP