Congressional hearings, Jun 3, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the Gender Transition on Minors hearing?
Markets
19 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mental Health | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Safe / Safety / Safer | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dysphoria | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Experimental / Experimenting | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Irreversible | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mastectomy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Puberty Blocker | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sterilize / Sterilized / Sterilization | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| WPATH | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | No | 71%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Insurance | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Harvard | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Discriminate / Discriminating / Discrimination | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gender Affirming | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| HRT / Hormone Replacement Therapy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mutilation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nonbinary / Non Binary | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DEI / Woke | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Whistleblower | No | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUN03C · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP