Congressional hearings, Feb 4, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the Hearings on Nazis and Swiss banks?
Markets
14 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accountable / Accountability | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Argentina | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Concentration Camp | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Credit Suisse | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crime / Criminal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| German / Germany | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hitler | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Holocaust | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Investigate / Investigated / Investigation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| UBS | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Bank Secrecy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Restitution | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCONGRESSMENTION-26FEB04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP