Candace Owens: Episode, May 18, 2026
Kalshi What will Candace Owens say during her livestream?
Markets
17 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 64%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 59%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Erika 8+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | 39%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 33%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Loomer | No | 67%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 57%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Propaganda | No | 48%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Conspiracy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 18%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCANDACEMENTION-26MAY18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP