Candace Owens: Episode, May 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Candace Owens say during her livestream?
Markets
15 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erika 5+ times | Yes | 75%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 57%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Yes | 37%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Propaganda | No | 47%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Zionist | No | 44%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 39%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Shapiro | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Blackmail | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 22%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | 21%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCANDACEMENTION-26MAY12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP