Candace Owens: Episode, May 11, 2026
Kalshi What will Candace Owens say during her livestream?
Markets
16 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erika 5+ times | Yes | 72%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 47%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 34%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tucker | No | 71%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 64%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Propaganda | No | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Zionist | No | 48%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Shapiro | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Blackmail | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Pope | No | 37%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 24%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCANDACEMENTION-26MAY11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP