Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Press conference, Mar 25, 2026
Kalshi What will AOC say during her AI Press Conference?
Markets
13 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ChatGPT / OpenAI | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Privacy / Security | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXAOCMENTION-26MAR25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP