Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Press conference, Jan 23, 2026
Kalshi What will AOC say during her Defiance Act press conference?
Markets
12 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bipartisan | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Consent / Consensual | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deepfake / Deep Fake | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| First Lady / Melania | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Porn / Pornography / Pornographic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Take it Down | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Victim | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Grok | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nude / Nudity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXAOCMENTION-26JAN23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP