Netflix (NFLX): FY26 Q3 earnings call, Oct 20, 2026
On its Oct 20, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q3), Netflix said 11 of the 27 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 27 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
27 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 27 of 27- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live Event | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 93%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 0:34, Live Event | – |
| Membership | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 78%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 1:53, Membership | – |
| Price Change / Price Point | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 75%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 3:52, Price Change / Price Point | – |
| Partnership | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 85%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 17:13, Partnership | – |
| NFL / Football | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 67%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 1:48, NFL / Football | – |
| NFL | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 65%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 1:48, NFL | – |
| Subscriber | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 61%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 10:36, Subscriber | – |
| Headcount | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 11:57, Headcount | – |
| Competition | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 90%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 3:11, Competition | – |
| TikTok / Short Form | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 33%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 0:38, TikTok / Short Form | – |
| World Cup | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 31%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 6:39, World Cup | – |
| Acquisition | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 94%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Podcast | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 86%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| KPop Demon Hunters | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 80%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| YouTube | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 75%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Tiktok / Youtube | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 74%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 5+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 67%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Gaming | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 66%n=6+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Paramount | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| GTA / Grand Theft Auto | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Hollywood | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 40%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Profitable | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Ad-Supported | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 29%n=6+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Layoff / Laid Off / Job Cuts | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Restructuring / Reorganization | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Rockstar | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| SI / Super Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 13:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
6 matches for “Guidance”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…seen results that are consistent with past changes and our expectations. Consistent with all that performance, we do plan on delivering our full year guidance.
…to deliver healthy growth. So, it's premature to issue full year 2027 guidance. We'll do that on our next call or our Q4 call. But…
…well. This one comes from Michael Morris of Guggenheim. The fourth quarter guidance includes about 120 basis points of cost tied to the headcount reductions.…
Well, I made this point again, in terms of specific guidance. We are not going to specifically quantify the expense impact in 2027, but as…
…are really focused on finishing this year strong. We will provide 2027 guidance in January, including that margin guidance. But there is no change to…
Where the listed words were said
…clarity in what has typically been Netflix's industry-leading strategy. What role do live events, or becoming a centralized streaming portal, or offering short-form video, third…
…the MLB, these events break through. They stand out, they drive new membership, they add fuel to our ad revenues, they please our existing members,…
Okay, so on the first part of Sean's question, the price changes in 2026 have gone well. Across all market types where we've done price…
…what are the guidelines you are using to evaluate these types of partnerships going forward? The related question comes from Matthew Condon of Citizens Bank.…
…Amanda Seyfried. In addition to all that, we've got our Christmas Day NFL games, and we'll now have the first Thanksgiving Eve game, which we…
…the Woods, Rabbit, just to name a few. We're going to have NFL games, one NFL game in the final week of the regular season.…
…Greg. But we see titles across Latin America, EMEA, APAC, driving engagement, subscriber growth, revenue, and profit. The U.S. is also working. It's just not…
…of StoneX. The question is: I wanted to touch on your recent headcount reductions, which is the largest since 2022. I recognize that you may…
…to other geographies? How would you frame any variables such as content, seasonality, competition, that might be driving any such divergences in engagement by region?
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/netflix:2026-10-20:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=netflix:2026-10-20:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP