General Motors (GM): FY26 Q3 earnings call, Oct 20, 2026

On its Oct 20, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q3), General Motors said 14 of the 22 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 22 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.

Updated

Markets

22 words · 14 settled yes · our count agreed on 22 of 22

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityClipMarket
Quarter 15+ timesYes4747✓79%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 0:01, Quarter 15+ times–
EV / Electric Yes1923✓96%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 3:57, EV / Electric–
Super Cruise Yes1112✓92%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 6:31, Super Cruise–
Tariff Yes99✓96%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 12:52, Tariff–
China Yes813✓94%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcriptsHear it 15:06, China–
Inflation Yes88✓77%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 14:29, Inflation–
North America Yes66✓93%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 2:16, North America–
Buyback / Buy Back Yes46✓54%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 11:35, Buyback / Buy Back–
Inventory Yes33✓95%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 10:42, Inventory–
President / Trump Yes33✓86%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 0:35, President / Trump–
Regulatory Yes22✓93%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 13:10, Regulatory–
Battery Yes22✓88%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 28:27, Battery–
Autonomous Yes22✓51%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 57:04, Autonomous–
Oil / Gas / Gasoline Yes11✓56%transcripts from the transcript modelHear it 28:38, Oil / Gas / Gasoline–
Mexico No00✓66%transcripts from the transcript model–
Domestic No00✓43%transcripts from the transcript model–
F1 No00✓36%transcripts from the transcript model–
Trump No00✓23%transcripts from the transcript model–
Passenger No00✓21%transcripts from the transcript model–
Hummer No00✓21%transcripts from the transcript model–
Debt 7+ timesNo00✓10%transcripts from the transcript model–
Fiscal 10+ timesNo00✓2%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

quotes of at most 25 words

Speaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.

Where the listed words were said

Operatoroperator“Quarter (15+)” · prepared · 0:03Hear it 0:00, Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the General Motors Company third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. During the opening remarks, all participants will be in a…

Mary Barracompany“EV / Electric” · prepared · 3:59Hear it 3:53, Mary Barra

…the plus side, we expect incremental benefits from warranty expense improvements, lower EV losses, growth in software and services revenue, and the launches of our…

Mary Barracompany“Super Cruise” · prepared · 6:33Hear it 6:30, Mary Barra

Trucks will also be a big driver of incremental Super Cruise adoption and digital revenue as we make the technology standard on high-end Silverado and…

Paul Jacobsoncompany“Tariff” · prepared · 12:54Hear it 12:51, Paul Jacobson

…up $1.7 billion year-over-year. The improvement was driven by higher earnings and tariff timing. Regarding EV charges, as I mentioned last quarter, we moved quickly…

Paul Jacobsoncompany“China” · prepared · 15:08Hear it 15:05, Paul Jacobson

GM International EBIT adjusted excluding China equity income was breakeven in the third quarter, down $200 million year-over-year, driven by a -$100 million mark-to-market adjustment…

Paul Jacobsoncompany“Inflation” · prepared · 14:31Hear it 14:28, Paul Jacobson

…and continued warranty expense reductions. These gains were partially offset by commodity inflation, including logistics and higher DRAM costs, along with higher manufacturing costs related…

Mary Barracompany“North America” · prepared · 2:18Hear it 2:15, Mary Barra

…up more than 35% year-over-year. During the third quarter, our margins in North America were 8.7%, up 2.5 points year-over-year. The compelling products, technology, and…

Paul Jacobsoncompany“Buyback / Buy Back” · prepared · 11:37Hear it 11:35, Paul Jacobson

That brings our year-to-date buybacks to $6.3 billion and completes the prior board authorization. This morning, we announced a new $20 billion multi-year share repurchase…

Paul Jacobsoncompany“Inventory” · prepared · 10:44Hear it 10:39, Paul Jacobson

…the downtime, the sell-down of the existing truck is on track, with inventories at planned levels and incentives as a percentage of MSRP that are…

Operatoroperator“President / Trump” · prepared · 0:37Hear it 0:32, Operator

…is being recorded Tuesday, October 20, 2026. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ashish Kohli, GM's Vice President of Investor Relations.

Paul Jacobsoncompany“Regulatory” · prepared · 18:48Hear it 18:46, Paul Jacobson

…the high end of our $1 billion-$1.5 billion in full-year improvement. Emissions-related regulatory savings are around $500 million year-to-date, and we expect a minimal benefit…

Paul Jacobsoncompany“Battery” · qa · 28:29Hear it 28:25, Paul Jacobson

…2028 and 2029, as we get into LMR and the next generation battery cells and packs, we should see another step function improvement in profitability.…

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