All-In Podcast, October 16, 2026
On the Oct 16, 2026 episode of All-In Podcast, 5 of the 10 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 10 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
10 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 10 of 10- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times | Yes | 32 | 32 | ✓ | 91%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| IPO | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 82%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Microsoft | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Massive | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Doomerism | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Anduril | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Battleground | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fiduciary | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mark Zuckerberg | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · All-In Podcast podcast audio (All-In), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
11 matches for “Token”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
So, those prices don't seem to, you know, token prices have gone down, but GPU prices have not. And so, things are going up, you…
Token price is coming down, but token consumption going way up. And I think one of the silver linings here is it was a big…
…Ben. You pointed out the power. The HVAC is worth something. The tokens are worth something. And then if you look at startups, which is…
…that there's a bunch of cannibalization that has to happen on the token side. I also think the big thing that has to happen in…
…was cost per thousand ads right now it's cost per million input tokens we will move to cpc and cpa right and yes so when…
Where the listed words were said
…one sooner. You would be where every other tech podcast is in the 400s. And joining us this week in replacement of the true start.
…a significant player at scale? And what would that say for the IPOs, the two biggest in the history of business and public markets, Anthropic…
Let's use Microsoft. You brought them up before, right? And Microsoft comes to us and says, we'd like to buy some Confidium. And we say,…
…all the bandwidth that had gotten built out And they had a massive amount of debt, not unlike we're building today, although not as big.
…and then your solutions. And so I think a lot of this doomerism can be explained by his desire to reestablish that central power structure…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/all-in-podcast:2026-10-16:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=all-in-podcast:2026-10-16:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP