Advance Auto Parts: FY26 Q2 earnings call, Aug 20, 2026
On its Aug 20, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), Advance Auto Parts said 7 of the 12 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 8 | 9 | ✓ | 87%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Ron | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 54%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| ARGOS | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 65%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Advance Reward | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 64%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Good Part | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 33%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| LIFO | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 74%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Net Promoter | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 42%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Worldpac | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 74%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Zebra | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 54%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Peak Driving | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 53%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Same Store | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 45%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Palantir | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 26%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
9 matches for “Tariff”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…to trends during Q2. Our margin outlook balances the tailwind from recent tariff refunds with incremental headwinds stemming from shifts in channel mix and increased…
…gross margin expansion in Q2 compared to the same period last year. Tariff refunds contributed $26 million in gross margin, accounting for 130 basis points…
…improved profitability and working capital management, a reduction in cash expenses related to our store optimization activity last year, and the receipt of tariff refunds.
…inflation compared to the second quarter reflects the comparison against last year's tariff-driven price adjustments. Based on revised inflation expectations, along with our focused action…
…flow guidance of approximately $100 million. Our guidance includes the flow-through of tariff refunds received during the second quarter and timing for certain general operating…
Where the listed words were said
…value for us. 110 basis points year-over-year if you back out the tariff impact on margins. So the real slight decrease versus our expectation of…
…to give specific guidance for next year. But I'll tell you what Ron's doing in supply chain, because the bulk of this year is supply…
…in our stores. We know that value plays are important. We've got ARGOS, which is our private brand of oil, and we're now expanding across…
…engagement. We are collaborating with vendors on targeted media campaigns, leveraging Advance Rewards, providing store incentives, and optimizing online paid search to stimulate transaction…
…using, what geography of customers we're talking to, and how we get them in there. We're going to continue to promote our Good Parts campaign.
…headwinds were offset by approximately 40 basis points of tailwind from immaterial LIFO and warehousing expenses in the quarter, compared to a headwind in the…
…quarter provided further evidence of progress on our store-based initiatives. NPS, or Net Promoter Scores, have improved to nearly 80 points from the high 60-point…
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