Netflix (NFLX): FY26 Q1 earnings call, Apr 16, 2026
On its Apr 16, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q1), Netflix said 12 of the 16 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 16 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
16 words · 12 settled yes · our count agreed on 16 of 16- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquisition | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 91%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Warner Bros. / Warner Brothers | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 67%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Competition | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 88%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Gaming | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 78%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Live Event | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 93%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Price Change / Price Point | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 63%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Subscriber | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 31%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Partnership | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 84%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Paramount | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 58%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Skyscraper | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 49%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Hollywood | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 45%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| MLB | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 36%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Stranger Things | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 79%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| WWE | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 59%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Ad-Supported | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 54%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Profitable | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 52%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
7 matches for “Guidance”; 4 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…of MoffettNathanson. His question is, "Can you speak to your full-year margin guidance and how it compares to prior guidance with the Warner Brothers deal…
…solid momentum and results from 2025. Given that, we are maintaining our guidance, our strong outlook for organic growth that we established for 2026. That's…
…the guide, you may recall back in January, our initial forecast or guidance for the year was carrying $275 million of cost for M&A related…
…all of our price changes. As a reminder, our initial full year guidance factors in the pricing adjustments that we expect to make throughout the…
Where the listed words were said
…fewer view hours than perhaps a scripted series. It's also got different acquisition characteristics. These are all things that we have to continually understand better.…
…and that carries through our OpEx. That's hitting our operating margin. For Warner Brothers specifically, even though we obviously walked away from the deal, and…
…to deliver this year. At Netflix, we embrace change. We thrive on competition. We stay focused on constant and consistent improvements. All the things that…
…Classic, and we're growing our games offering, including a brand new kids gaming app. Number two, we're leveraging technology to improve the service, from how…
…about the World Baseball Classic viewership? Are there other similar sports and live event opportunities out there that can appeal to a global audience and…
They're similar to the performance that we've observed historically with price changes in the United States. This is based on early data. The rollout's still…
…comparison point to support that statement, in the U.S. right now, Netflix subscribers are paying the least per hour of viewing compared to other SVOD…
…we were firing on all cylinders cross-functionally, whether our marketing teams, our partnership teams working to make sure that we're bringing this to Japanese consumers…
…to most of these folks. Running Point is produced by Warner Brothers for us. We license shows like Watson and Mayor of Kingstown for Paramount.
…strategy, but that strategy also includes other big live events. We had Skyscraper Live, the Star Search reboot with live voting, which was really exciting,…
…his heart. Reed not only shared the spotlight, a real rarity in Hollywood, by the way. He pushed me into the spotlight and celebrated the…
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