Constellation Brands: FY26 Q4 earnings call, Apr 9, 2026
On its Apr 9, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q4), Constellation Brands said 9 of the 13 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 13 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
13 words · 9 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 13- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wine | Yes | 11 | 15 | ✓ | 79%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 2:55, Wine | – |
| Headwind | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 91%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 9:32, Headwind | – |
| Inventory | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 77%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 13:12, Inventory | – |
| Aluminum | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 60%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 10:49, Aluminum | – |
| Especial | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 30%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 5:19, Especial | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 88%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 10:50, Tariff | – |
| Depletion / Depletions | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 75%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 8:02, Depletion / Depletions | – |
| California | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 74%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 22:55, California | – |
| Dividend | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 43%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 25:23, Dividend | – |
| Inflation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 56%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Holiday | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 47%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Cannabis | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 43%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| ICE | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
7 matches for “Distributor”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…believe that we are well-positioned to continue delivering for our consumers, employees, distributors, and shareholders over the long term. Having served on the Board for…
…on April 13th, I look forward to spending time with our operators, distributors, and many of you in the investment community to gain an even…
…ongoing category pressures, channel headwinds, the timing of our cost deleveraging, and distributor inventory rebalancing. Starting with the category headwinds, we've seen a material downgrade…
…in our materials, we've agreed to some inventory rebalancing with our key distributors, reflective of the softness we're seeing in the wine and spirits category.…
…believe that our target margins are achievable over the medium term as distributor inventories normalize, as the category declines moderate, and as our cost savings…
Where the listed words were said
In wine and spirits, our efforts to reshape the portfolio are gaining traction with strong contributions from brands like Kim Crawford and Mi Campo. Lastly,…
…You're right. We've guided to 37%-38% margins. I'll tell you what the headwinds are and then what we're doing to offset those headwinds. You rightfully…
…around the phasing of Wine and Spirits margins in FY 2027. The inventory de-stocking with distributors will happen throughout the year and not sort of…
…We additionally, as you saw in our materials, will have relief from aluminum tariffs this year. As it relates to beyond FY 2027, we're not…
…to well over 400 million cases, nearly double the size of Modelo Especial, and made it the number one selling beer brand by dollars in…
…strong position. We saw sequential gains in the quarter, and we saw depletions up in the quarter, which had not been the case over the…
…in the takeaway. It was probably most notable in the state of California, which is part of the reason you've seen very strong Circana data…
…think are important for the long run. It's continuing to do the dividend. More importantly, we've continued to return dollars to shareholders. Over $900 million…
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