Constellation Brands: FY26 Q4 earnings call, Apr 9, 2026
On its Apr 9, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q4), Constellation Brands said 9 of the 13 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 13 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
13 words · 9 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 13- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wine | Yes | 11 | 15 | ✓ | 79%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 2:55, Wine | – |
| Headwind | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 91%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 9:32, Headwind | – |
| Inventory | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 77%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 13:12, Inventory | – |
| Aluminum | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 60%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 10:49, Aluminum | – |
| Especial | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 30%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 5:19, Especial | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 88%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 10:50, Tariff | – |
| Depletion / Depletions | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 75%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 8:02, Depletion / Depletions | – |
| California | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 74%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 22:55, California | – |
| Dividend | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 43%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 25:23, Dividend | – |
| Inflation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 56%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Holiday | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 47%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Cannabis | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 43%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| ICE | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
16 matches for “Beer”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…chapter from a position of strength with a leading portfolio in high-end beer, a reshaped wine and spirits business, best-in-class marketing and sales capabilities, and…
…will continue to be insights-driven and consumer-obsessed, lean into our strengths in beer, allocate capital with discipline, and generate strong cash flow while thoughtfully navigating…
…published remarks, we ended the year with some solid momentum in our beer business, despite operating in a challenging environment during our fiscal 2026. It…
…approach allowed us to take share and strengthen our competitive position. Our beer portfolio continued to lead the high-end segment, with Modelo Especial maintaining its…
Maybe you could just unpack the beer top line guidance for the upcoming fiscal year, the -1% to +1%. I ask that in the context…
Where the listed words were said
As it relates to wine and spirits margins, there are a number of factors that are going in to the guided margin profile, including ongoing…
…You're right. We've guided to 37%-38% margins. I'll tell you what the headwinds are and then what we're doing to offset those headwinds. You rightfully…
…in place. As we outlined in our materials, we've agreed to some inventory rebalancing with our key distributors, reflective of the softness we're seeing in…
…We additionally, as you saw in our materials, will have relief from aluminum tariffs this year. As it relates to beyond FY 2027, we're not…
…to well over 400 million cases, nearly double the size of Modelo Especial, and made it the number one selling beer brand by dollars in…
…strong position. We saw sequential gains in the quarter, and we saw depletions up in the quarter, which had not been the case over the…
…in the takeaway. It was probably most notable in the state of California, which is part of the reason you've seen very strong Circana data…
…think are important for the long run. It's continuing to do the dividend. More importantly, we've continued to return dollars to shareholders. Over $900 million…
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