Apple: NYC Apple event, Mar 4, 2026
At the keynote on Mar 4, 2026, Apple said 0 of the 17 words Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 0 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| iPad | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Apple Intelligence 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Apple Music | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Apple Watch | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Engineering | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| No | –new new word, no probability yet | – | |
| Macbook 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Megapixel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Microsoft | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Most Advanced / Most Powerful | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Performance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Siri 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stabilization | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ultra-wide | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| M5 | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Apple TV | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| CarPlay | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/apple:2026-03-04:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=apple:2026-03-04:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP