Netflix (NFLX): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Jan 20, 2026
On its Jan 20, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4), Netflix said 11 of the 15 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 14 of 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 15- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live / Event | Yes | 23 | 23 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Acquisition | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 89%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Competition | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 81%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Live Event | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 92%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Stranger Things | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 70%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Gaming | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 70%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Warner Bros | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✗ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Ad-Supported | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 30%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Partnership | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 82%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Jake Paul | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 57%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Paramount | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 43%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Price Change / Price Point | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 83%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Profitable | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 72%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Hollywood | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 66%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Subscriber | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 52%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
24 matches for “Content”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…Baseball Classic in Japan, that's launching in March. We're expanding into more content categories like video podcasts, which just kicked off this week. And we're…
…about our outlook. It comes from Steve Cahall of Wells Fargo. The content amortization growth forecast of 10% in your earnings letter implies a bit…
…relative to '25. So as a result, you should see higher year-over-year content expense growth in '26 growing off of that smaller base that we…
…years. So it's no change in our approach. We aim to grow content spend slower than revenue so that it can contribute to our margin…
…growth. And don't know. Maybe, Greg, Ted, don't if you wanna talk a little bit more about our focus areas of investing in the content.
Where the listed words were said
…kind of that already included some very successful animation films. To include live action films. We have a new slate of licensed titles from Paramount…
…value for our members and that shows up in core metrics like acquisition, like retention, You know, and retention's among the best in the industry,…
…is an exciting time in the business. Lots of innovation, lots of competition. But that's also been true of us for twenty-five years. Netflix, Inc.…
…our ability to do that in ads and live where the 200 live events that Ted mentioned indicates that we should ramp and grow in…
…vacation, the rip, his and hers, A New Year's Eve release of Stranger Things finale is still crushing. We've got Bridgerton season four that's coming…
…On games, we are going to continue to invest in the cloud-first gaming strategy that we've added. This makes TV games more accessible by rolling…
…see huge opportunity to keep improving things there. But we also see Warner Bros. With one hundred years of IP, an incredible library, great new…
…ads potential in 2026, do you think you could reach parity on ARM, average revenue per membership, or ad-supported for ad-supported versus your ad-free plans?
…the quality scores and how do we improve that. More licensing, more partnerships with local creative communities, with local broadcasters around the world. That improves…
…of Baird. What were your observations from recent live events such as Jake Paul versus Anthony Joshua, and the NFL on, Christmas Day. How should…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/netflix:2026-01-20:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=netflix:2026-01-20:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP