Ross Ulbricht
As of Oct 25, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 29 word markets on Ross Ulbricht’s appearances since 2025, on 23 different words.
History Wall
1–26 of 26, most settled first| Word | May 29 ’25latest | Last 1 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.I / Artificial Intelligence | 3 times: A.I / Artificial Intelligence, May 29 ’25 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bitcoin | 15 times: Bitcoin, May 29 ’25 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Blockchain | 3 times: Blockchain, May 29 ’25 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency | 2 times: Crypto / Cryptocurrency, May 29 ’25 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Decentralized | 6 times: Decentralized, May 29 ’25 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Freedom | 34 times: Freedom, May 29 ’25 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Pardon / Pardoned | 1 time: Pardon / Pardoned, May 29 ’25 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Prison | 19 times: Prison, May 29 ’25 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Satoshi | 1 time: Satoshi, May 29 ’25 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Silk Road | 4 times: Silk Road, May 29 ’25 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump | 3 times: Trump, May 29 ’25 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump3+ times | 3 times: Trump 3+, May 29 ’25 keynote, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| 21 Million | 0 times: 21 Million, May 29 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| America | 0 times: America, May 29 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bank | 0 times: Bank, May 29 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Biden | 0 times: Biden, May 29 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Million / Billion / Trillion5+ times | 0 times: Million / Billion / Trillion 5+, May 29 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Coin25+ times | 0 times: Coin 25+, May 29 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Coin35+ times | 0 times: Coin 35+, May 29 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Coin50+ times | 0 times: Coin 50+, May 29 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ethereum | 0 times: Ethereum, May 29 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| FBI | 0 times: FBI, May 29 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| FBI / Federal Bureau of Investigations | 0 times: FBI / Federal Bureau of Investigations, May 29 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Harris | 0 times: Harris, May 29 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Memecoin | 0 times: Memecoin, May 29 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Pardon | 0 times: Pardon, May 29 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 1Our transcript counts matched how 29 of 29 settled words resolved (100.0%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2025 | KeynoteWhat will Ross Ulbricht say at Bitcoin2025 Conference? | Captions · machine-attributed | 29 | 15 yes · 14 no | 29/29 (100%) |
Citeparrot.markets, “Ross Ulbricht: mention market word history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/ross-ulbricht (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/ross-ulbricht · words: /api/v1/history?entity=ross-ulbricht · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP