Bill Ackman: Episode, Nov 19, 2025
Kalshi What will Bill Ackman say during his talk on Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac?
Markets
12 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bailout | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Private Market / Private Sector | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 2008 / GFC | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| 50 Year | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bubble | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Demand | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inventory | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Subsidy / Subsidize / Subsidized | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| May I Meet You | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXACKMANMENTION-25NOV19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP