Will Andy Burnham say “NATO”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Andy Burnham said “NATO” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 22, 2026.
Of the last 4 transcripts we have, of any kind (4 PMQs; Sep 2, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), since fewer than 2 debates have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Andy Burnham
NATO
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 4 transcripts
- said in 3 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (4 PMQs); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…our commitments to him and his country, and we will honour our NATO commitments, as I have said every time that I have appeared at…
…the defence of this nation—that was the reason—and we will honour our NATO commitments: 3.5% by 2035, and a target date for 3%. That will…
…the spending review we will set out a plan to meet our NATO commitments by 2035. There is no problem with our commitment to defence.…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | NATO |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Andy Burnham say “NATO”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Andy Burnham said “NATO” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Andy Burnham says “NATO” next time?
- 66%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Andy Burnham: ‘NATO’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/andy-burnham/words/nato (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=andy-burnham&word=nato · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=andy-burnham&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP