Bad Bunny
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 40 word markets on Bad Bunny’s appearances since 2025, on 33 different words.
History Wall
1–33 of 33, most settled first| Word | Oct 4 ’25episode | Feb 6 ’26conference | Feb 9latest | Last 3 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puerto Rico | Settled yes: Puerto Rico, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Puerto Rico, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Puerto Rico, Feb 9 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Spanish | Settled yes: Spanish, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Spanish, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Spanish, Feb 9 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump | Settled no: Trump, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Settled no: Trump, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Trump, Feb 9 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Album | Not listed: Album, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Album, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Album, Feb 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Doja / Cat2+ times | Settled yes: Doja / Cat 2+ times, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Doja / Cat 2+ times, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Doja / Cat 2+ times, Feb 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Dance / Dancing | Not listed: Dance / Dancing, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Dance / Dancing, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Dance / Dancing, Feb 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Grammy / Grammys | Not listed: Grammy / Grammys, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Grammy / Grammys, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Grammy / Grammys, Feb 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Halftime | Settled yes: Halftime, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Halftime, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Halftime, Feb 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Latino / Immigrant | Settled yes: Latino / Immigrant, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Latino / Immigrant, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Latino / Immigrant, Feb 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Nervous | Settled yes: Nervous, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Nervous, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Nervous, Feb 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Super Bowl | Settled yes: Super Bowl, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Super Bowl, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Super Bowl, Feb 9 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Acting | Settled no: Acting, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Acting, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Acting, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Apple | Not listed: Apple, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Settled no: Apple, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Apple, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Beach | Not listed: Beach, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Settled no: Beach, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Beach, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Settled no: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Cardi | Settled no: Cardi, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Cardi, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Cardi, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | Settled no: Charlie / Kirk, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Charlie / Kirk, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Charlie / Kirk, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Comedian | Settled no: Comedian, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Comedian, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Comedian, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Crazy | Settled no: Crazy, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Crazy, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Crazy, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| ICE | Settled no: ICE, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: ICE, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: ICE, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Settled no: ICE / National Guard, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ICE / Trump | Not listed: ICE / Trump, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: ICE / Trump, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Settled no: ICE / Trump, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Island of Garbage | Settled no: Island of Garbage, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Island of Garbage, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Island of Garbage, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Kristi / Noem | Settled no: Kristi / Noem, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Kristi / Noem, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Kristi / Noem, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Nicki / Minaj | Settled no: Nicki / Minaj, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Nicki / Minaj, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Nicki / Minaj, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| NFL | Not listed: NFL, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Settled no: NFL, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: NFL, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Patriots | Not listed: Patriots, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Settled no: Patriots, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Patriots, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Seahawks | Not listed: Seahawks, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Settled no: Seahawks, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Seahawks, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Singer | Settled no: Singer, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Singer, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Singer, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Surprise | Settled no: Surprise, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Surprise, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Surprise, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Taylor / Swift | Settled no: Taylor / Swift, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Taylor / Swift, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Taylor / Swift, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Tony | Settled no: Tony, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Tony, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Tony, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Tour | Settled no: Tour, Oct 4 ’25 episode | Not listed: Tour, Feb 6 ’26 conference | Not listed: Tour, Feb 9 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 3Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2026 | EpisodeWill Bad Bunny say “ICE” or “Trump” during the halftime show? | no transcript | 1 | 0 yes · 1 no | – |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Press conferenceMention: Bad Bunny Press Conference | no transcript | 12 | 5 yes · 7 no | – |
| Oct 4, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Bad Bunny say during the Saturday Night Live? | no transcript | 27 | 8 yes · 19 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Bad Bunny: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/bad-bunny (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/bad-bunny · words: /api/v1/history?entity=bad-bunny · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP