Will Vistra say “Capacity Auction”?
Vistra did not say “Capacity Auction” on its Aug 7, 2026 call (FY26 Q2); it said it on 5 of its last 8 calls: 1, 2, 2, 5, 1, 0, 0, 0 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Vistra did not say “Capacity Auction” on the only call with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Aug 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 30% (n=1, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 47¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Vistra
Capacity Auction
- Probability
- 30% · n=1
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last calls
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…multiple drivers of gross margin variability remain, including the 2027, 2028 PJM capacity auction, our hedge percentage, which currently sits at approximately 70% of expected…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
5 counted (5 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…months, combined with the results of the recently completed 2026, 2027 PJM capacity auction, we are increasing our 2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity, excluding any…
…to 60% on average compared to the prior year. The recent PJM capacity auction clear is a sign of markets responding to this increased demand…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…things again, we still have some open length. We still have the capacity auction to clear. I mean there is a distance between the floor…
…gigawatts of gas fire generation have been built in PJM through the capacity auction. So I think, if anything, price signals matter. And price signals…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Capacity Auction |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How many times did Vistra say “Capacity Auction” on its last earnings call?
- Vistra did not say “Capacity Auction” on its Aug 7, 2026 call (FY26 Q2); it said it on 5 of its last 8 calls: 1, 2, 2, 5, 1, 0, 0, 0 times.
- How often does Vistra say “Capacity Auction”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Vistra did not say “Capacity Auction” on the only call with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Aug 7, 2026.
- What is the probability Vistra says “Capacity Auction” next time?
- 30%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “Vistra: ‘Capacity Auction’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/VST/words/capacity-auction (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=vistra&word=capacity%20auction · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=vistra&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP