Will Microsoft say “Open Source”?

Microsoft did not say “Open Source” on its Jul 29, 2026 call (FY26 Q4); it said it on 2 of its last 8 calls: 0, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0 times. As of Oct 23, 2026, no Kalshi or Polymarket mention market on Microsoft saying “Open Source” has settled yet.

54%base rate for a new wordNext: Keynote, Oct 28, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Counts
named speaker only
Market
71¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Microsoft

Open Source

Probability
54% · prior
Last calls
said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

FY26 Q4 earnings call, Jul 29, 2026 · not said

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FY26 Q3 earnings call, Apr 29, 2026 · said 2 times (counts)

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Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)

2 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).

Satya NadellacompanypreparedIn transcript

…can choose the right model for the right workload across OpenAI, Anthropic, open source, and more. Over 10,000 customers have used more than one model…

Every match in the transcript

FY26 Q2 earnings call, Jan 28, 2026 · not said

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FY26 Q1 earnings call, Oct 29, 2025 · not said

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FY25 Q4 earnings call, Jul 30, 2025 · not said

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FY25 Q3 earnings call, Apr 30, 2025 · not said

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FY25 Q2 earnings call, Jan 29, 2025 · said 3 times (counts)

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Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)

3 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A).

Satya NadellacompanypreparedIn transcript

…our support of both OpenAI's leading models and the best selection of Open Source models and SLMs. DeepSeek's R1 launched today via the model catalog…

Satya NadellacompanyqaIn transcript

…distill models. Some of them are models that you distill into an open source model. So there's going to be a combination. So we've always…

Every match in the transcript

FY25 Q1 earnings call, Oct 30, 2024 · not said

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Questions

How many times did Microsoft say “Open Source” on its last earnings call?
Microsoft did not say “Open Source” on its Jul 29, 2026 call (FY26 Q4); it said it on 2 of its last 8 calls: 0, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0 times.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Microsoft: ‘Open Source’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/MSFT/words/open-source (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=microsoft&word=open%20source · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=microsoft&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP