Tim Walz: Interview, Aug 29, 2024

Thu, Aug 29InterviewHistory onlyTim Walz

Updated

Markets

11 words · 3 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Abortion Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Teacher Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
IVF Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
JD Vance No–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Crypto/Bitcoin No–new new word, no probability yet–
Disorder No–new new word, no probability yet–
Free Speech No–new new word, no probability yet–
Gutter No–new new word, no probability yet–
Coach No–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Debate No–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Tampon No–n=1 too little history for a probability–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.

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