Donald Trump: Keynote, Jul 27, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during his Bitcoin Conference speech?
Markets
10 words · 4 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAGA | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elizabeth Warren | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala Harris | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Barron | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| DJT or Donald Trump Coin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ethereum | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Memecoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reserve | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Solana | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP