Donald Trump: Remarks, Dec 4, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Christmas Tree Lighting on December 4?
Markets
13 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peace / War | Yes | 58%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | 55%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful / Job 5+ times | Yes | 47%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Countdown / Count down | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hannukah / Kwanzaa | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thank 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God / Jesus 5+ times | Yes | 35%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Angel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bible | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Christmas 8+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dream | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Family / Friend 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Joe / Biden | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-christmas-tree-lighting-on-december-4 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP