Kamala Harris: Rally, Sep 20, 2024
Polymarket What will Kamala say during Wisconsin rally?
Markets
12 words · 2 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abortion Ban | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Project 2025 | Yes | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine/Palestinian | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Artificial Intelligence | No | 25%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| JD Vance | No | 23%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's | No | 21%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Convicted Felon | No | 18%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Weird | No | 15%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Liar | No | 15%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 12%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-kamala-say-during-wisconsin-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP