The Joe Rogan Experience: Episode, Apr 19, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (April 13)
Markets
24 words · 12 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crazy 15+ times | Yes | 76%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Jamie 3+ times | Yes | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Dude 10+ times | Yes | 57%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hollywood | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fuck / Fucking 10+ times | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Genius | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Military | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – | |
| Algorithm | Yes | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cold Plunge | Yes | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Chocolate | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cookie | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Coincidence / Coincidental | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| No | –new new word, no probability yet | – | |
| NASA | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Telescope | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| War time / Wartime | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Best friend | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hillary / Clinton | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mickey Mouse | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Insurance | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Invasion | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-first-joe-rogan-experience-episode-of-the-week-april-13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP