Big Brother: Episode, Sep 4, 2026

Fri, Sep 4EpisodeHistory onlyBig Brother

Updated

Markets

13 words · 7 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Final Yes69%n=5 from settlement history–
Jury Yes63%n=20 from settlement history–
Blind Yes51%n=5 from settlement history–
Surprise Yes46%n=5 from settlement history–
Pawn Yes31%n=5 from settlement history–
Joke Yes29%n=5 from settlement history–
Sleep Yes27%n=5 from settlement history–
Family No57%n=5 from settlement history–
Blood No46%n=5 from settlement history–
Flip the Vote / Flipped the Vote No45%n=5 from settlement history–
Veto 5+ timesNo45%n=5 from settlement history–
Coffee No31%n=5 from settlement history–
Date No27%n=5 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-during-episode-29-of-big-brother-20260904 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP