Fareed Zakaria GPS: Episode, Dec 8, 2025
Kalshi What will Fareed Zakaria say during his show?
Markets
12 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | Yes | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 26%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Drug / Cartel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Maduro | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Socialism / Socialist | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXZAKARIAMENTION-25DEC08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP