Winter Olympics: Game, Feb 17, 2026

Tue, Feb 17GameHistory onlyWinter Olympics

Updated

Markets

15 words · 11 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
2022 Yes72%n=2 from settlement history–
1620 Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Halfpipe Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Hand Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Livigno Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Mute Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Switch Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Train / Trained / Training Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Goggle Yes54%n=2 from settlement history–
X Games Yes53%n=2 from settlement history–
Injury / Injured Yes36%n=2 from settlement history–
Lindsey Vonn No53%n=2 from settlement history–
Powder No53%n=2 from settlement history–
1800 No–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Red Bull No36%n=2 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Transcript

History only. Sports broadcasts are tracked by their settled markets; there is no transcript for games.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWOMENTION-26FEB17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP