# The Late Show (the-late-show-with-stephen-colbert) · tv_episode 2025-11-05 · 12 words · K k:KXCOLBERTMENTION-25NOV05 · as_of 2026-10-24T13:53:37Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-05 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXCOLBERTMENTION-25NOV05 ({word} = w of K rows): If Michelle Obama says {word} as part of The Late Show With Stephen Colbert, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Democrat	democrat	1	1	1	Y	0.45	hist	no
Trump	trump	1	1	1	Y	0.45	hist	no
Economy	economy	2	1	0.5	nY	0.39	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	0	0	n	0.23	hist	no
Barack	barack	0	0			0.3	prior	yes
Book	book	0	0			0.3	prior	yes
Campaign	campaign	0	0			0.3	prior	yes
Daughter	daughter	0	0			0.3	prior	no
Election	election	0	0			0.3	prior	no
ICE	ice	0	0			0.3	prior	no
National Guard	national guard	0	0			0.3	prior	no
SNAP	snap	0	0			0.3	prior	no