Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Remarks, Aug 28, 2026
Kalshi What will AOC say during March on Washington?
Markets
15 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Housing / Rent | Yes | 68%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 60%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Martin Luther King / MLK | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Court / SCOTUS | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vote / Voting / Voter | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gaza / Israel | No | 68%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy / Democratic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Climate | No | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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