Anna Paulina Luna: Speech, Sep 10, 2026

Thu, Sep 10SpeechHistory onlyAnna Paulina Luna

Updated

Markets

13 words · 5 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Congress Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Corrupt / Corruption Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Democrat Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Republican Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Transparent / Transparency Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Epstein No–new new word, no probability yet–
FBI No–new new word, no probability yet–
Florida No–new new word, no probability yet–
ID / Identification No–new new word, no probability yet–
Russia / Russian No–new new word, no probability yet–
Trump No–new new word, no probability yet–
UFO / UAP No–new new word, no probability yet–
Whistleblower No–new new word, no probability yet–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Transcript

No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXALUNMENTION-26SEP10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP