Hannity (Fox News), October 15, 2026
On the Oct 15, 2026 episode of Hannity, 5 of the 19 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 18 of 19 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
UpdatedMarkets
19 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 18 of 19- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bar / Exam | Yes | 3 | 10 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pepperdine | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border | Yes | 1 | 11 | ✓ | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Lawyer | Yes | 0 | 3 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | 3 | 15 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Diesel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kimmel / SNL | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Leavitt | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 0 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Talarico | No | 0 | 12 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| America First | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SAVE America Act / SAVE Act | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | No | 0 | 21 | ✓ | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 0 | 11 | ✓ | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/hannity:2026-10-15:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=hannity:2026-10-15:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP