American Express (AXP): FY26 Q2 earnings call, Jul 24, 2026
On its Jul 24, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), American Express said 16 of the 34 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 34 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
34 words · 16 settled yes · our count agreed on 34 of 34- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter 10+ times | Yes | 31 | 31 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 0:51, Quarter 10+ times | – |
| Acquisition | Yes | 18 | 18 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 4:57, Acquisition | – |
| Expense | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 94%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 3:31, Expense | – |
| Refresh | Yes | 14 | 14 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 3:11, Refresh | – |
| Restaurant | Yes | 14 | 14 | ✓ | 84%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 6:46, Restaurant | – |
| NII / Net Interest Income | Yes | 9 | 11 | ✓ | 90%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 17:07, NII / Net Interest Income | – |
| NFL | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 40%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 6:57, NFL | – |
| Millennial | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 92%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 4:47, Millennial | – |
| Airline | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 88%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 13:38, Airline | – |
| Retention | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 87%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 4:37, Retention | – |
| Lounge | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 84%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 6:37, Lounge | – |
| Commercial | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 83%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 14:19, Commercial | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 60%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 31:47, Fraud | – |
| Luxury | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 45%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 6:38, Luxury | – |
| Amazon | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 44%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 49:50, Amazon | – |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 36%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 8:54, OpenAI / ChatGPT | – |
| Income 10+ times | No | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 7%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 11:27, Income 10+ times | – |
| Regulation / Regulatory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 67%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Currency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Stablecoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Basel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Volatility | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Inventory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Cybersecurity | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 25%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Coinbase | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Reservation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 19%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Wealth | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 19%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Automation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Crypto | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Nordstrom | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 14%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Spending Trend | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 14%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Blockchain | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 10%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Fiscal 10+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 2%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
…contains non-GAAP financial measures. Comparable GAAP financial measures are included in this quarter's earnings materials, as well as the prior period earnings materials discussed today.…
…while at the same time being able to invest more in customer acquisition and technology over the course of the year as we capitalize on…
…kick in over time, we expect fee revenues to increase and VCE expense growth to moderate. By focusing on bringing in high credit quality premium…
…said this before, it's worth repeating. When we invest in a product refresh, we expect to realize the full benefits a year or two after…
…acquired Resy, Tock, and our proposed acquisition of TheFork, a leading online restaurant booking platform which would add 50,000 restaurants to our dining network across…
…in the quarter, the highest level we have seen since we increased our focus on premium products. Net interest income was up 11% this quarter.
Yeah. Look, thanks for the question, Craig. When we think about the NFL, Fanatics, and the other sponsorships that we have, the NBA, Formula 1,…
…of new consumer Platinum Card accounts outside the U.S. are coming from millennials and Gen Zs. This approach to innovating our premium value propositions has…
…in the quarter. Restaurant spending, our largest T&E category, was up 10%. Airline spending picked up further from the strong growth we saw in Q1,…
…quantitatively and qualitatively? Can we sort of think through what the one-to-two-year retention rates are on new customers versus what you've seen historically? Also, to…
…example, the Platinum Card is designed for customers who value premium travel and lifestyle perks, like airport lounge access, luxury hotel benefits, and one-of-a-kind experiences.
…largest share of U.S. consumer spending, remained our fastest-growing cohorts this quarter. Commercial spending picked up to 5%, with both U.S. SME and large and…
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