Judson Althoff: Microsoft Keynote, Nov 19, 2025
At the keynote on Nov 19, 2025, Judson Althoff said 4 of the 15 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agent | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Automation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Demo | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Human | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Activision | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bill Gates | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gaming | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Generative AI / Gen AI | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Investment | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nvidia | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| OpenAI | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Quantum | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Security | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Semiconductor | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/judson-althoff:2025-11-19:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=judson-althoff:2025-11-19:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP