Nike (NKE): FY26 Q1 earnings call, Sep 30, 2025
On its Sep 30, 2025 earnings call (FY26 Q1), Nike said 11 of the 16 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 15 of 16 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
16 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 16- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 27 | 28 | ✓ | 96%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inventory | Yes | 19 | 21 | ✓ | 96%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| North America | Yes | 17 | 18 | ✓ | 94%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 68%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Jordan | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Sustainable | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 75%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Supply Chain | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 87%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Sabrina | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 71%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Nike Factory | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 52%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Amazon | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 41%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Express Lane | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 66%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tatum | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 53%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Retailer | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 35%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Direct to Consumer / DTC | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Consumer Demand | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 29%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Digital Sales | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
28 matches for “China”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…There is significant work ahead, especially in the areas of sportswear, Greater China, and NIKE Direct. And as I have said to the team, progress…
…marketplace. Digital, and physical, wholesale and NIKE Direct, in all geographies. Greater China, as I mentioned on the last call, is facing structural challenges in…
…weeks ago. We traveled to three cities, spending time with our Greater China leadership team, consumers, and our partners. We are even more committed to…
…demand. It is even more clear that our path to winning in China is through sport. Our team is moving with urgency to develop consistent…
…the prior year and a normalized level of closeout mix. In Greater China, Q1 revenue declined 10%. NIKE Direct declined 12%, with NIKE Digital down…
Where the listed words were said
…sell-through continues to be a headwind. Running is a bright spot in China, growing high single digits in the quarter, with strong consumer response to…
…Jordan, and Converse brands. Air Force One is stabilizing. Air Jordan one inventory levels are returning to health. The dunk continues to be managed aggressively…
…our win-now actions drove momentum in the areas we prioritized first: Running, North America, and wholesale partners. It showed that we are making the right…
…are turning our business around in the face of a cautious consumer, tariff uncertainty, and teams that are still settling into the sport offense. We…
…new formation and ways of working will align our three brands, NIKE, Jordan, and Converse, into more nimble, focused teams by sport. We will gain…
…And there is still work to do to return to driving consistent, sustainable, profitable long-term growth. With that, I'll pass the call back to Elliott.
…we return to organic growth, we will drive operating leverage on our supply chain costs, on our retail overhead, and on our general operating overhead.…
…a reported basis due to higher wholesale discounts, higher discounts in our NIKE factory stores, increased product costs, including new tariffs, and channel mix headwinds.…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/nike:2025-09-30:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=nike:2025-09-30:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP