Nintendo Direct
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 13 word markets on the Nintendo Direct series since 2026, on 13 different words.
History Wall
1–13 of 13, most settled first| Word | Jun 9latest | Last 1 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Emblem | Settled yes: Fire Emblem, Jun 9 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Pokémon | Settled yes: Pokémon, Jun 9 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Splatoon | Settled yes: Splatoon, Jun 9 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Sport | Settled yes: Sport, Jun 9 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Super Mario | Settled yes: Super Mario, Jun 9 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Xenoblade | Settled yes: Xenoblade, Jun 9 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Zelda | Settled yes: Zelda, Jun 9 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 | Settled no: Clair Obscur: Expedition 33, Jun 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Dark Ages | Settled no: Dark Ages, Jun 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Genshin Impact | Settled no: Genshin Impact, Jun 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Indiana Jones | Settled no: Indiana Jones, Jun 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Pikmin 4 | Settled no: Pikmin 4, Jun 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Rainbow Six Siege | Settled no: Rainbow Six Siege, Jun 9 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 1Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | KeynoteWhat will be said during Nintendo Direct? | no transcript | 14 | 7 yes · 7 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Nintendo Direct: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/nintendo-direct (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/nintendo-direct · words: /api/v1/history?entity=nintendo-direct · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP