What is the probability Craig Federighi says “Update / Updated” next time?

70%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Craig Federighi say “Update / Updated”?

Name: Craig Federighi: “Update / Updated” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, Craig Federighi said “Update / Updated” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 8, 2026.

In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jun 8, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 22:55 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Craig Federighi

Update / Updated

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 1 transcript: said in 1 of 1

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Craig Federighi say at Apple WWDC 2026 on June 8th? · said 4 times (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: named speaker only

4 counted; 13 by speakers the rule does not count.

Craig Federighispeaker2:48In transcript

…talk about our next set of releases, where we have some exciting updates to share. This year, we put our focus into three areas. First,…

Craig Federighispeaker27:43In transcript

…questions, including how to get started. Together, this makes for a big update, underscoring our ongoing commitment to building a safe and trusted platform for…

Every match in the transcript

Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result	Our count
Jun 8, 2026	Update / Updated	Polymarket	Yes	4

Questions

How often does Craig Federighi say “Update / Updated”?: As of Oct 26, 2026, Craig Federighi said “Update / Updated” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jun 8, 2026.
What is the probability Craig Federighi says “Update / Updated” next time?: 70%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Craig Federighi: ‘Update / Updated’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/craig-federighi/words/update-or-updated (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=craig-federighi&word=update%20%2F%20updated · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=craig-federighi&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP