Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry
vsFinal
Polymarket: any official commentator 
Polymarket
PolymarketWords
13 words · history before this game| Word | League | Last 10 | Fighters | Network | Probability | Result | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knockout / Knock Out / Knocked Out | 49/9353% | 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes no yes yes yes no | – | 52% n=82 | 49%n=93 from settlement history | No | – |
| Nasty | 3/560% | 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes no | – | 60% n=5 | 43%n=5 from settlement history | Yes | – |
| Combination / Sequence 3+ times | 1/1100% | 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | No | – |
| Takedown / Take down 3+ times | 1/1100% | 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | Yes | – |
| Submission | 2/450% | 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no | – | – | 38%n=4 from settlement history | Yes | – |
| Dagestan / Russian | – | – | – | –new too little history for a probability | Yes | – | |
| Nurmagomedov / Khabib | 0/30% | 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no | – | – | 31%n=3 from settlement history | Yes | – |
| Guillotine | 1/520% | 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no | – | 20% n=5 | 30%n=5 from settlement history | No | – |
| Blood / Bloody / Bloodied | 26/9228% | 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no yes no no no yes yes | – | 28% n=82 | 27%n=92 from settlement history | Yes | – |
| Armbar / Arm Bar | 0/30% | 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no | – | – | 18%n=3 from settlement history | No | – |
| Choke | 29/9132% | 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no yes no no no yes yes | – | 33% n=82 | 18%n=91 from settlement history | Yes | – |
| Goat | 0/30% | 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no | – | – | 18%n=3 from settlement history | No | – |
| Nice Jab / Good Jab 3+ times | 0/40% | 0/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no | – | – | 16%n=4 from settlement history | No | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal.
Transcript
History only. Sports broadcasts are tracked by their settled markets; there is no transcript for games.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?appearance=ufc-and-boxing%3A2026-08-15%3Agame-makhachev-garry · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP