Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway
vsFinal
History only on Kalshi: sports mention markets paused 31 Jul 2026 Kalshi: any official commentator 
Kalshi Polymarket: any official commentator 
Polymarket
Kalshi Polymarket: any official commentator PolymarketWords
33 words · history before this game| Word | League | Last 10 | Fighters | Network | Probability | Result | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty | 2/2100% | 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes | – | – | 56%n=2 from settlement history | No | – |
| Train / Trained / Training | 37/6854% | 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes no yes yes yes yes no | – | 54% n=59 | 52%n=68 from settlement history | No | – |
| Knockout / Knock Out / Knocked Out | 38/7154% | 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes no no no no yes yes | – | 52% n=62 | 51%n=71 from settlement history | No | – |
| White House | 4/850% | 4/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes no no no yes | – | 50% n=8 | 50%n=8 from settlement history | No | – |
| Submission | 1/1100% | 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | No | – |
| T-Mobile | 2/367% | 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes | – | – | 41%n=3 from settlement history | No | – |
| Armbar / Arm Bar | – | – | – | –new too little history for a probability | No | – | |
| Choke | 20/6929% | 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes no no no yes no | – | 29% n=62 | 40%n=69 from settlement history | No | – |
| Goat | – | – | – | –new too little history for a probability | No | – | |
| Holloway 20+ times | – | – | – | –new too little history for a probability | No | – | |
| Ireland / Irish | – | – | – | –new too little history for a probability | No | – | |
| McGregor 20+ times | – | – | – | –new too little history for a probability | No | – | |
| Takedown / Take down 5+ times | 1/1100% | 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | No | – |
| Decision / Judge | 33/6849% | 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no no no no yes no | – | 44% n=61 | 38%n=68 from settlement history | No | – |
| Blood / Bloody / Bloodied | 19/7027% | 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no yes no no no | – | 26% n=62 | 36%n=70 from settlement history | No | – |
| Butterfly | 0/10% | 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | No | – |
| Nice Jab / Good Jab 3+ times | 0/10% | 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | No | – |
| Guillotine | 0/20% | 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no | – | – | 34%n=2 from settlement history | No | – |
| Triangle | 22/6534% | 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes yes no yes no yes | – | 36% n=61 | 34%n=65 from settlement history | No | – |
| Khabib / Oliveira | – | – | – | –new too little history for a probability | No | – | |
| Choke / Choked / Chokehold | 20/6929% | 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes no no no yes no | – | 29% n=62 | 30%n=69 from settlement history | No | – |
| Eye poke | 0/20% | 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no | – | – | 30%n=2 from settlement history | No | – |
| Tired / Tiring | 20/7029% | 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no yes yes no no no | – | 27% n=62 | 29%n=70 from settlement history | No | – |
| Slip / Slips / Slipped | 18/6528% | 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no yes no | – | 28% n=61 | 28%n=65 from settlement history | Yes | – |
| Notorious | – | – | – | –new too little history for a probability | No | – | |
| Combination / Sequence 5+ times | 0/10% | 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | No | – |
| Blessed | 0/10% | 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | No | – |
| Championship | 13/6819% | 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no no no no no no | – | 21% n=62 | 20%n=68 from settlement history | No | – |
| What a Fight | 5/579% | 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no no no no no no | – | 10% n=51 | 11%n=57 from settlement history | No | – |
| Legal / Illegal | 4/686% | 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no | – | 7% n=61 | 8%n=68 from settlement history | No | – |
| Dana | 4/716% | 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no | – | 6% n=62 | 7%n=71 from settlement history | No | – |
| Lights Out | 0/660% | 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no | – | 0% n=61 | 1%n=66 from settlement history | No | – |
| Event does not qualify | 0/560% | 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no | – | 0% n=48 | – | No | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal.
Transcript
History only. Sports broadcasts are tracked by their settled markets; there is no transcript for games.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?appearance=ufc-and-boxing%3A2026-07-11%3Agame-mcgregor-holloway · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP