The Ingraham Angle
As of Oct 27, 2026, Kalshi has settled 29 word markets on The Ingraham Angle since 2026, on 25 different words.
History Wall
1–26 of 26, most settled first| Word | Aug 18episode | Oct 26latest | Last 2 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Settled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Aug 18 episode | 0 times: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 26 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 43%n=2 from settlement history |
| Healthcare | Settled yes: Healthcare, Aug 18 episode | 0 times: Healthcare, Oct 26 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 43%n=2 from settlement history |
| Socialism / Socialist | Settled no: Socialism / Socialist, Aug 18 episode | 1 time: Socialism / Socialist, Oct 26 episode, counts as said | 1/250% | 1/250% | 52%n=2 from settlement history |
| Border | Not listed: Border, Aug 18 episode | 2 times: Border, Oct 26 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tax Cut / Cut Tax | Not listed: Tax Cut / Cut Tax, Aug 18 episode | 1 time: Tax Cut / Cut Tax, Oct 26 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Democrat | Not listed: Democrat, Aug 18 episode | 4 times: Democrat, Oct 26 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Democrat / Democratic | Settled yes: Democrat / Democratic, Aug 18 episode | Not listed: Democrat / Democratic, Oct 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Economy / Economic | Settled yes: Economy / Economic, Aug 18 episode | Not listed: Economy / Economic, Oct 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Election / Midterm | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Aug 18 episode | 5 times: Election / Midterm, Oct 26 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Aug 18 episode | 1 time: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 26 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Housing / Rent | Settled yes: Housing / Rent, Aug 18 episode | Not listed: Housing / Rent, Oct 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Iran / Iranian | Settled yes: Iran / Iranian, Aug 18 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Oct 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Zohran / Mamdani | Settled yes: Zohran / Mamdani, Aug 18 episode | Not listed: Zohran / Mamdani, Oct 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Poll / Pollster | Not listed: Poll / Pollster, Aug 18 episode | 1 time: Poll / Pollster, Oct 26 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Supreme Court | Not listed: Supreme Court, Aug 18 episode | 1 time: Supreme Court, Oct 26 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tax | Settled yes: Tax, Aug 18 episode | Not listed: Tax, Oct 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Aug 18 episode | 0 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Aug 18 episode | 0 times: Big Beautiful Bill, Oct 26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Billionaire / Millionaire | Settled no: Billionaire / Millionaire, Aug 18 episode | Not listed: Billionaire / Millionaire, Oct 26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| China / Chinese | Not listed: China / Chinese, Aug 18 episode | 0 times: China / Chinese, Oct 26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Aug 18 episode | 0 times: Immigrant / Immigration, Oct 26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Inflation | Settled no: Inflation, Aug 18 episode | Not listed: Inflation, Oct 26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Russia / Russian | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Aug 18 episode | 0 times: Russia / Russian, Oct 26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| SAVE America Act / SAVE Act | Not listed: SAVE America Act / SAVE Act, Aug 18 episode | 0 times: SAVE America Act / SAVE Act, Oct 26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump | Settled no: Trump, Aug 18 episode | Not listed: Trump, Oct 26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump3+ times | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Aug 18 episode | 1 time: Trump (3+ times), Oct 26 episode, below the threshold | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 2Our transcript counts matched how 17 of 17 settled words resolved (100.0%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Mike Johnson say during The Ingraham Angle? | Captions · machine-attributed | 18 | 8 yes · 10 no | 17/17 (100%) |
| Aug 18, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Bill de Blasio say during Fox News: The Ingraham Angle? | no transcript | 13 | 8 yes · 5 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “The Ingraham Angle: mention market word history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-ingraham-angle (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/the-ingraham-angle · words: /api/v1/history?entity=the-ingraham-angle · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP