The Joe Rogan Experience: Episode, Jul 12, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (July 6)
Markets
21 words · 15 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| People 100+ times | Yes | 77%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Right | Yes | 74%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Different | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Left | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crazy | Yes | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fuck / Fucking 20+ times | Yes | 61%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Amazing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blue | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Problem | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Show | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Alien | Yes | 44%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Dude 20+ times | Yes | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| People 200+ times | Yes | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Red | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Spy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Firearm | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Informative | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Obsolete | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 10+ times | No | 20%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-first-joe-rogan-experience-episode-of-the-week-july-6-20260702150712902 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP