President Curtis: Episode, Sep 6, 2026

Sun, Sep 6EpisodeHistory onlyPresident Curtis

Updated

Markets

13 words · 7 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Security Yes69%n=5 from settlement history–
God 5+ timesYes65%n=3 from settlement history–
Hell Yes65%n=3 from settlement history–
Power Yes54%n=3 from settlement history–
Worm Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
White House Yes42%n=5 from settlement history–
Leprechaun Yes34%n=3 from settlement history–
Monster No54%n=3 from settlement history–
President 10+ timesNo34%n=5 from settlement history–
Agent 5+ timesNo24%n=3 from settlement history–
Bank 5+ timesNo24%n=3 from settlement history–
CIA No21%n=5 from settlement history–
Rick No21%n=5 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.

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