President Curtis: Episode, Sep 13, 2026

Sun, Sep 13EpisodeHistory onlyPresident Curtis

Updated

Markets

13 words · 6 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Security Yes72%n=6 from settlement history–
God 5+ timesYes68%n=4 from settlement history–
Hell Yes68%n=4 from settlement history–
Worm Yes61%n=2 from settlement history–
Power Yes61%n=4 from settlement history–
Leprechaun Yes46%n=4 from settlement history–
White House No50%n=6 from settlement history–
Monster No45%n=4 from settlement history–
President 10+ timesNo30%n=6 from settlement history–
Agent 5+ timesNo23%n=4 from settlement history–
Bank 5+ timesNo23%n=4 from settlement history–
CIA No20%n=6 from settlement history–
Rick No20%n=6 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.

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